ShoreSight
ShoreSight: Coastal hazard mapping tool for climate adaptation in Saint Lucia
ShoreSight is a web‑based tool that brings together maps of present‑day and future coastal flooding, sea level rise, and erosion in Saint Lucia. It supports informed coastal planning, climate adaptation, and public awareness through an interactive map viewer.
Using the tool
The mapping interface allows users to pan and zoom to interrogate hazard and background layers including:
Shoreline erosion: Map showing the present day shoreline position and projected future shoreline positions changing as a result of sea level rise (SLR) for the 2050s and 2100s under three SLR scenarios.
Coastal flooding: Map showing areas at risk of temporary coastal flooding due to storm surge and wave action for two return period events (1 in 50 and 1 in 100 year return periods) for present day, 2050s and 2100s.
River flooding: Map showing areas at risk of temporary river flooding (also referred to as fluvial flooding) for two return period events (1 in 50 and 1 in 100 year return periods) for present day, 2050s and 2100s. This is available for three locations; Castries, Dennery and Soufriere.
Historical aerial imagery: Historical aerial imagery is provided for coastal communities for 1941, 1951, 1953 and 1966 allowing comparison with the present-day coastal zone.
Contextual background layers are provided to support interpretation of the hazard maps and include administrative district boundaries, beaches, protected areas, coastal wetland forests, a multi dimensional poverty indicator and roads and paths.
Interpreting the future scenarios
The SLR scenarios provide the basis for modelling future coastal flooding, storm surge, fluvial flooding, and coastal erosion under present-day, 2050s, and 2100s conditions. Sea level rise projections are based on the latest IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) and are tailored for Saint Lucia by incorporating country-specific Vertical Land Motion (VLM).
Three SLR scenarios relative to the 1995–2014 baseline are used to capture uncertainty:
Low: SSP1 2.6 (50% quantile): 0.29 m by 2050; 0.66 m by 2100. Lower bound projection.
Medium: SSP2 4.5 (83% quantile): 0.36 m by 2050; 0.94 m by 2100. Most likely projection for general planning purposes.
High: SSP5 8.5 (95% quantile): 0.45 m by 2050; 1.39 m by 2100. Upper bound projection which is unlikely to be exceeded, useful for ‘what if’ scenarios and long lived or particularly sensitive infrastructure.
For the coastal and fluvial flooding modelling, the 2050s and 2100s also contain uplifts to wind speed and rainfall intensity to represent the potential for more intense storms with climate change.
Development of ShoreSight
ShoreSight was developed as part of the consultancy project “Modelling and Assessment of Coastal Climate Change Impacts in Saint Lucia”, under a Green Climate Fund (GCF) Readiness and Preparatory Support Programme. The project supports Saint Lucia’s national adaptation planning process and was executed by the Government of Saint Lucia’s Department of Sustainable Development, with the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) as Delivery Partner and HR Wallingford as lead consultant.
